THE
WiMax
EXPLOSION!
Authors: Alfred Boschulte
Victor Schnee
The Following is a Excerpt From the Study “The WiMAX
Explosion”
For further information:
Call:
Inge Schnee
1-973-813-7106, or Email:
inges@bsgadvisory.com
Copyright 2007
Boschulte Schnee Group LLC
WiMAX is a trigger, a catalyst for
enormous potential change in telecom, including the worlds of
wireless, telcos, cable, media and the Internet.
These changes,
which go far beyond the market share that WiMAX will directly
capture, will emanate from the U.S. market to the rest of the
world.
In the U.S.
these changes can challenge and may even threaten all entrenched
communications companies – even ones as large as AT&T, Verizon
and Comcast –legacy operators of all types, both fixed and
wireless.
The impact of
WiMAX rests on: 1) the timing of its arrival and 2) its
interaction with several other powerful factors impinging on the
future of communications and media.
There are two
basic views of how significant WiMAX can be, one a more narrow
perspective, the other a far broader based one. Whether WiMAX
can get to the broader based impact depends on how skillfully it
is marketed and on its interaction with these other major
factors.
WiMAX is like an
accelerator, a launch system for change and eventual industry
overhaul and restructuring.
To put the U.S.
telecom and related industries in perspective (some of which is
applicable to other advanced markets to some extent), the
industry never completed the logical restructuring that began
with the massive upheaval of the late '90s and 2000-2002 period.
This upheaval led to hyper consolidation and formation of mega
businesses – AT&T, Verizon, Comcast – that are going through a
Cinderella period in which, with no direct challenger – YET –
they are enjoying ascendancy and profits.
What does WiMAX
add that is very important to the future? WiMAX provides
Post-Convergence networking and advanced Broadband – vital
pieces in transforming telecommunications.
Its ultimate
importance will depend on its ability to act in conjunction with
the other massive forces pressing against these legacy telecom
giants. BSG believes that three of these forces will be
particularly decisive.
A.
The Changing Device World – which demands that value migrate
from networks to devices and that is being guided by the
world-class device leader, Apple.
B.
The Imperatives of the IT/Internet Industry – which must fight
through a war to deter legacy telecom (wireless-telco-cable),
which is trying to tax, slow down and impede the wild
proliferation of applications and content vital to IT/Internet's
future. This charge is led by Google, Intel, Yahoo, eBay (Skype),
with Microsoft laboring to catch up.
C.
Consumer Electronics Mass Retailing – which is where telecom
will inevitably wind up being marketed, but which requires: a
simple, complete, uniform and universal type of product set –
that WiMAX can begin to provide and that legacy companies
cannot.
The trajectory
that WiMAX takes is vitally dependent on its success in the U.S.
market, which will indicate the extent of its overall
potential.
While many
smaller WiMAX vendors may be concerned about the initial
U.S.-centric nature of WiMAX, it is not a negative issue for
them. The rest of the world, as we show in this study (see
Chapter 9), will develop WiMAX in a more piecemeal manner
allowing them the opportunity to participate and gain business.
And the rest of the world will benefit from the advances in
WiMAX derived from the U.S., where the WiMAX ecosystem will be
built and honed.
How far WiMAX
can go to fulfill its potential is already in the balance as
U.S. leaders, Sprint and Clearwire, descend on the market and
the U.S. prepares for the 2008 industry-changing 700 MHz
auction.
In this study,
culminating a multi-month project undertaken by leading industry
executive and technologist Al Boschulte (former CEO of NYNEX
Mobile, executive, consultant and builder of telecommunications
companies worldwide) and Victor Schnee, highly acclaimed for his
telecom forecasting record – BSG defines not only the key
issues, but the specific critical steps WiMAX must take to put
itself in position to capitalize on this opportunity.
The study addresses and articulates the
opportunity – and the threat – that must be confronted by every
carrier, would-be competitor, equipment provider, component
maker, media, content and applications company: all of the vast
array of wireless, telecom, cable/satellite, IT/Internet and
media companies whose futures are vitally involved.
