WiMAX In the Balance

Uncertainty about WiMAX has arisen from the turmoil at Sprint, the leading carrier in the world committed to WiMAX.

Several commentators have speculated that with a changing of the management, WiMAX plans could get cropped, perhaps severely.

To succeed, new technology standards like WiMAX require three attributes. According to “The WiMAX Explosion!” BSG’s industry leading study, superior radio access network (RAN) technology is only one requirement.

Once technological feasibility is established the more thorny issues arise – about business model soundness and ability to translate technology availability into commercial availability.

The risky part of the current situation is that if Sprint’s problems translate into delays in establishing commercial availability and a sound business model, the entire WiMAX industry, worldwide could suffer.

The turbulence at Sprint raises issues about whether still more players will be drawn into the WiMAX dynamic. Who might they be? Companies that have been mentioned beside Clearwire include Comcast, Google, Alltel, AT&T (which has just purchased a bundle of 700 MHz spectrum from Aloha Partners), DirecTV and others.

The most thorough exposition and analysis of the Competitive Dynamics of WiMAX is contained in “The WiMAX Explosion!” from Boschulte Schnee Group LLC (BSG).

The study fully explores the position of all major players: fixed line carriers, wireless companies, IT/Internet majors, cable and satellite broadcasters. Strategy alternatives and scenarios are carefully explained.

“The WiMAX Explosion!” also provides the most extensive analysis of Critical Business Model Issues for WiMAX, using sophisticated operational/financial models and analysis. The study defines and probes three primary Business Models for widespread rollouts of WiMAX and reaches well-supported conclusions about the business risks and likely success of each. 

As Telephony Magazine stated in a review of the study:

“The best strategy is one that uses WiMAX as a true convergence service. According to their models, the technology could be used to displace DSL and capture 20% of the consumer broadband business; used for wireless data and capture 16% of that business; or best used to deliver both wireless and fixed voice and data, achieving a 42% share of the broadband households.”

Telephony also featured this data from “The WiMAX Explosion!”

National Rollout Models – Year-5 – Summary Results

(In millions of U.S. dollars; subscribers and -

revenue generating units (RGUs) in thousands.)

        Source: “The WiMAX Explosion!” BSG